Pick Analysis: NCAA Week 5

Louisiana Tech +24

Model loves La Tech and the points this week. We also like some favorable angles and trends that are in the Bulldogs favor. 1. La Tech is a cover machine getting points on the road. Head coach Skip Holtz is 17-6 ATS as a road dog 2. The public has seen BYU throw up to blowouts in beating Navy and Troy. These two teams were clearly weren’t ready as Navy couldn’t tackle a toddler and Troy seemed jet lag flying cross country. BYU is overvalued here and we like La Tech to keep this one close. 

Looking at Model we see value with La Tech offense. This will definitely be the best offense BYU has seen with La Tech averaging 48.5 points a game and over 460 yards of offense. This offense should put up some points on a good BYU defense. If you analyze the yards per point statistic, we can see La Tech keeping up the BYU offense keeping the score within the number. 

La Tech is a better team than Troy and Navy, in fact the model likes La Tech to beat Navy by 13 and Troy by a field goal. Add in Skip Holtz ability to play the underdog role and get his team ready to play with bulletin board material like a 24 point spread, and we like our chances and value with the Bulldogs getting too many points on Friday night. 

Oklahoma State -20.5

Hopefully you got on the Pokes early with us, as we have seen this line creep all the way up to Oklahoma State -22. We love the Pokes in this game and especially under the key number of -20.5. We normally think of offense when it comes to Oklahoma St, but this game is going to be decided on the  defensive side of the ball. More specifically we like the opponent points per play matchup. Oklahoma St is going to dominate this statistic, making Kansas have to sustain long drives to score points. We didn’t see it from Kansas against Baylor or Coastal Carolina and we’re not going to see it here. Oklahoma St has only given up 20 points on the young season, and showed their defensive prowess vs a decent Tulsa team and conference foe West Virginia. 

Another reason we love Ok State is Kansas inability to stop anyone from scoring. Their opponent points per play will be atrocious and Ok State will be able to score early and often. Look for the Jayhawks to give up massive amounts of rushing yards and chunk plays en route to an easy Ok State cover. The Cowboy offense should get it rolling in their 3rd game and put up plenty of points on this passive Jayhawk defense. Look for Heisman hopeful Chuba Hubbard to run wild on this defense and start his Heisman campaign push. Kansas also boasts one of the worst special teams units in the country allowing 2 return TDs versus an athletic Baylor team. We expect short fields as the Ok State defense will get stops putting the offense in excellent shape all afternoon. 

We don’t expect Ok State to be looking ahead to their next week matchup with Baylor, as the Pokes got a near disastrous scare from Tulsa in their first home game. Instead we expect Mike Gundy to solidify his offense this week versus an inferior opponent and head into Waco, Tx firing on all cylinders. Literally. Expect a blowout in this contest as Kansas will struggle to score, while Ok State will light it up gaining momentum to next week’s showdown with Baylor. 

Kansas State -2

This is another game we jumped on early and grabbed at -2 before it crept up to the key number of 3. We love Kansas St in this contest as we think the Wildcats will continue their momentum off a huge road win vs #3 Oklahoma last week. At first glance this game looks like a toss-up between two run of the mill Big 12 teams. But Kansas St has significant value here. First off, they are at home in the Little Apple. Having lost to Arkansas St at home in their home opener look for Head Coach Chris Klieman to have his team ready to play in front of the albeit diminished home crowd. Another angle we love is a Texas Tech letdown after their complete meltdown vs Texas in Lubbock last week. Texas Tech blew a 15 point lead with 3:13 left in the 4th quarter before ultimately losing in Overtime to the then #8 ranked Longhorns. This was a crushing blow. We expect a hangover as Tech has to try to rally the troops and travel to Manhattan, KS and face a very hungry K State team with a lot of momentum. 

When we look at our model, we see that these offenses should put up some serious points, as both can light up a scoreboard. Both teams will run tons of plays and throw up tons of yards, but we see value with the  K State’s Yards per Point statistic. The Wildcat offense will be able to turn those plays and yards into points at a more efficient clip then Texas Tech, pair this with Kansas St possessing the better defense (Opponent Yards per Point) and home-field advantage, we like the Wildcats to cover this short spread. 

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