Pick Analysis: NFL Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders +3.5

The RSP Model loves the Raiders in the is spot on Sunday. The Raiders are live home underdogs as they return home to host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon. We love Las Vegas to cover the 3.5 and wouldn’t be surprised to see an outright win. Buffalo is sitting 3-0 atop the AFC East standings feeling like this could be their year, and I think the public believes that as well. But who have the Bills really beat? They beat the Jets by 10 at home, got backdoored by the Dolphins failing to cover a modest 5.5 on the road, and escaped the Rams after losing the second half 29-14. The only good team the Bills have played were the Rams, who travelled cross country for a 1:00 kick and by the time they woke up outplayed the Bills in the second half. Are you impressed by this? We are not. The Bills finally get a true test, as they will travel cross country to play the Las Vegas Raiders, who have played some tough ball games and some tough opponents. They outslugged Carolina on the road, outplayed Drew Brees and the Saints at home, and ran out of gas against the Fighting Belichicks on the road (another cross country 1:00 game). Bottom line we love the Raiders to cover the generous and inflated 3.5 line, and wouldn’t be shocked with an outright win. We also see some key statistical advantages that should help the Raiders cause. The Raiders will run way more plays than the Bills. This doesn’t mean anything unless you produce points on these plays, but putting up points hasn’t been a problem for Gruden’s squad. The Raiders have put up 30 the last two games before the Patriot D caught them on a tough road trip. The Raiders will also see a significant advantage in yards per point. Gruden will use this efficient and explosive offense to light up the scoreboard on a Bills team that has to travel. The Rams exposed this Buffalo defense last week and Las Vegas showed everyone they are capable of making stops against New Orleans.

Chicago Bears +3

We love Chicago in this spot at +3, but if you’re a person who likes to buy the warranties on TVs, go ahead and grab the hook to +3.5. To be blunt Indy is not good on the road or on grass. Losing to Jax week 1 was not a good look and now they travel into Chicago to face Nick Foles and the Bears. We already know the Bears have a great defense, but add in Foles who rejuvenated the offense in a comeback win in ATL and dare we say that we have a playoff team in Chicago? We will gladly take the home dog here playing with momentum and a new outlook on a once struggling offense.

We expect the Colts to move the ball and put up some yards on this Chicago defense but one statistic we see as extremely important is Indy’s yards per point. Putting up yards and moving the ball is great, but in the NFL you need TDs. Look for Chicago D to limit them in the red zone, if they can move the ball at all. Remember Indy does not like leaving their cushy dome stadium. Having to battle that D outdoors and on grass will be another story. On the opposite side look for Chicago to dominate the points per play statistic as Foles will mix in chunk plays to put up points on this Indy D who has not been tested. The Jags, Vikings, and Jets aren’t nearly as efficient as Nagy and the Bears will be today. We love the Bears at home.

Philadelphia Eagles +7.5

It’s desperation time in Philly as the Eagles have yet to win this young season. We love Doug Pederson to have a game plan this week against the Niners. I mean the guy out dueled Belichick and the Patriots with a backup QB to win a Super Bowl. Let’s be honest Wentz has underperformed this year, but has a chance to prove himself on Sunday night football. We like the Philly offense to get it going this week. They have played 3 pretty good defenses the 1st 3 weeks in the Redskins, Rams, and Bengals. Look for Pederson to keep this game close after getting crushed in the media and tying Cincinnati. SF will be in for a dog fight after their pillow fights with the Jets and the Giants the last 2 weeks. SF has lost to the Cards and beat the two worst teams in the NFL. Look for them to get smacked in the mouth tonight.

We expect a low scoring affair in the Bay Area tonight as both offenses will look to control clock with long grueling drives that will burn a ton of clock. In those situations we love taking 7.5 with the desperate road dog with their backs against the wall. We expect to see parity in the offenses, even though Jimmy G is back. We expect a little rust and a focus on the running game. Jim Schwartz and the Eagle D will be up for the task and concentrate on confusing Jimmy G all night. Look for the Eagles to play their butts off tonight and relish in the underdog role that they have thrived on.

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