Pick Analysis: NFL Week 5

Tennessee Titans +3.5

The model expects another close one tonight in Smashville. We will gladly take the 3.5 with the home dog as we see another inflated line with Buffalo laying over a FG. Buffalo is undefeated but have they been tested offensively? Jets. Nope. Miami. Nope. Rams. Kinda. Raiders. I guess. Look for Tennessee to hit the Bills in the mouth tonight. Buffalo may be 4-0 but they are by no means a cover machine. Yes they covered last week when we had the Raiders, but they also benefitted on 3 2nd half turnovers.

The model sees two very evenly matched teams playing tonight. Two teams that will mirror each other offensively in the plays per point metric. We expect the Titans to win the yard per play metric and look for Henry and Co to give the Bills everything they can handle.

Defensively, we also see two very evenly matched teams. But we love the 2 week off aspect that Tennessee enjoys. Most people would say this creates sloppy tackling because they haven’t played in a while. We see things differently. We see a defensive minded Belichick disciple in Vrabel who has had two to prepare. The Bills have played 3 close games the last three weeks and now have to travel to Nashville, where the fans haven’t seen football in 2 weeks. Those 8600 fans will be ready and so will the Titans. Look for a rejuvenated Titan team to cover this inflated 3.5 spread as a home dog. We’re 3-0 in dogs this week, let’s make it 4.

-Mike Forbis, RSP Contributor

LA Chargers +7

We like the road team in this contest. Especially when head referee Clay Martin is calling the game. Road teams are 24-10 when he is the head official. We like those odds. Drew Brees and the Saints have not looked like themselves to start this 2020 season. The Saints D has given up a ton of points the last 3 games and we expect the Chargers to be able to score with them. Saints gave up 34 to LV, 37 to GB, and 29 to Detroit. Look for this LA offense to be able to put up points on the Saints as we expect the points per play statistic to be dead even with NO. In addition we expect the yards per point statistic to be dead even with NO. Meaning the Model says that these two teams are dead even when it comes to scoring or preventing the opponent from scoring. So we will gladly take the 7 points here.

Drew Brees is without his best wideout again as Michael Thomas has been ruled out. This is a huge advantage as the Charger D can key on Kamara and limit his big play ability. The Chargers D has faced some really good offenses and QBs this season. Limiting KC and Mahomes to 20 points. Covering against Brady and the Bucs last week in TB. Look for this defense to show up tonight and put a ton of pressure on Brees. We like them to limit the NO offense and keep this game close throughout. We have been successful grabbing dogs including outright wins with Miami and Carolina yesterday. We wouldn’t be surprised to get another one tonight in the Chargers.

– Mike Forbis, RSP Contributor

Carolina Panthers +2.5

First things first, does anybody really want to put any of their bankroll on the self destructing Birds of Atlanta?

We can’t, so we’re backing the Panthers with this generous bookmaker spot of +2.5.  

Sharpies in Vegas know that the Joes are saying Matty Melt is bound to cover sooner or later, so they are trapping you with this below the key number line of -2.5 at home. Don’t be a stooge.

The Falcons couldn’t stop Georgia State let alone Carolina’s Teddy Ballgame (19-5 ATS as a dog).

Dallas, Seattle and Green Bay put up 38, 40 and 30 respectively, torching the Falcon secondary… even Chicago laid 30 on them.

Meanwhile in the Carolina locker room, they are brimming with confidence, smoking cigars and as loose as the hookers on Seventh Avenue in New York.

Carolina is coming off upset wins and covers over the Chargers and Cardinals and have yet to be chalk. Vegas being Vegas , the sharpies know the Joe’s are thinking no Cam , no Christian, no cover. Wrong.

If you look into the numbers the offenses are similar , the huge difference is the defenses.

Carolina gives up nearly 100 yards less than Coolanta.

On top of all this positive vibe for Carolina , we even expect Carolina to get an extra possession in the turnover battle.

Our Model has Carolina winning out right 26- 24 , so avoid the squares and cash your ticket with RSP.

-Vic Bunta, RSP Contributor

Miami Dolphins +9.5

The RSP Model absolutely loves the Dolphins on the road in San Fran. We know we know, Miami is traveling cross country, but the game is at 4:05 and it didn’t stop Philly from a cover and an outright win. Did we have that last week? Yes, yes we did. We are going to fade the Niners again this week. We told you last week the Niners have played a cake schedule and were going to get hit in the mouth with Philly. We’re telling you this week take the Dolphins and the points. We wouldn’t be surprised if they straight up win, but let’s not get too cocky and just take the points on the road. Here are some reasons why:

San Fran struggles with mobile QBs. Fitzmagic isn’t Lamar Jackson but he is mobile enough to escape the pocket. Both teams will run the same amount of plays, but Miami has shown to have big play capability and will be more efficient than SF winning the points per play war. Miami is battle tested and won’t see anything they haven’t seen from SF. Playing NE, Sea, Jax, and Buff this defense has faced some of the toughest offenses in the league. Miami has shown the books don’t value them. Miami has covered against Buffalo, Jax, and nearly covered against NE and Sea. They are undervalued and SF shouldn’t be giving 9.5 to this team. We wouldn’t be shocked to see a Miami win but we love them to cover. Miami will be guns a blazing as they have a favorable matchup next week vs injury riddled Denver. We don’t care if Jimmy G does play. He will be rusty and off as the Miami D will play fast and tough. Not to mention SF has division-rival LA Rams next week. Can you say look ahead? Take the fins and the points

-Mike Forbis, RSP Contributor

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