Pick Analysis: NCAA Week 7

Temple -10.5

The RSP team loves the Owls this weekend in Philly as they host the struggling USF Bulls.  Temple lost a tough one last weekend 31-29 to an up and down Navy team in Annapolis.  It was the Owls first game of the 2020 season and predictably got off to a slow start.  They fought their way back and if it wasn’t for a missed 2pt conversion with a minute to go they would have forced overtime.  Although they didn’t complete the comeback, Senior QB Anthony Russo and his two biggest weapons, 6’5 WR Branden Mack and RB Re’Mahn Davis, gave Navy fits as they scored TD’s on 3 of their 4 second half drives. 

Since their season opening win vs The Citadel, USF has struggled mightily on offense.  The Bulls have scored 4 TDs in the last 3 games combined.  For the season they are averaging an abysmal .14 points per play and 22.8 yards per point.  The other side of the ball hasn’t been much better. In the last 3 games the Bulls opponents have rushed for an average of 227 ypg on over 4.5 ypc.  In addition to everyone Running on the Bulls, teams are converting 3rd down at a 55% clip.  They also don’t create much pressure with only having 3 sacks on the entire season.

Davis should have a big day for the Owls on the ground and when they decide to put the ball in the air Russo should have plenty of time to find his favorite target in Mack. The Temple defense should be excited to play a struggling offense on a cool crisp Saturday morning in Philly.  We love the Owls to cover the spread and win big while running the Bulls out of town. 

-Jackson Morgan, RSP Contributor

UCF -3.5

The model loves UCF in this bounce-back spot at Memphis on Saturday. After a tough loss at home vs Tulsa, UCF finds themselves unranked as they have plummeted from the #13 spot to outside the top 25. This is a chance for them to make a statement against conference rival Memphis. To say UCF owns Memphis is an understatement. UCF hasn’t lost to Memphis since 1990, and is 13-0 SU in that span. In fact, in those 13 wins only 2 games have been decided by less than 3 points. We will take the Knights in this spot and lay the -3.5 with confidence.

UCF enjoyed a week off and got a chance to regroup after losing to their kryptonite Tulsa, who has beat them 4 consecutive times. They will come in hungry. They will get the offense rolling again. Randy Shannon has had 2 weeks to prepare this defense to stop a Memphis team going through a transition after Norvell headed to Tallahassee.  UCF is a better offense than Memphis, they play with tempo and rack up huge chunk plays, scoring quickly and efficiently. No surprise there.

The surprise is that the Model expects UCF to play much better than Memphis on the defensive side of the ball. We have seen the Knights play decent defense against Power 5 Georgia Tech, holding them to 21 points. The astounding part is the way this team creates turnovers. They created 5 against GT, 4 against ECU, and 3 against Tulsa. Look for the Knights to control the turnover battle as Memphis has 5 turnovers in their first 2 games. These turnovers will lead to UCF having more possessions and we know what that means…look for UCF to run up score as they try to get back in the top 25 in a big conference road win.

– Mike Forbis, RSP Contributor

Cincinatti -3.5

The Bearcats travel to Chapman Stadium in Tulsa to take on the Golden Hurricane after Tulsa’s head-scratching surprise win over UCF. Tulsa always seems to play UCF tough , but they have not been as lucky against a Cincinnati squad, losing last year by double digits.

I’m not Carnac the Magnificent,  but I’m sure there isn’t much wind left in this Tulsa Hurricane team and I’m expecting a huge letdown. I’ve been told Tulsa players are back home feasting on mounds of fried okra and barbecue, they should be a step slower this week.

This will be Cincinnati’s first time away from Skyline Chili and I’m hearing from my canaries inside the locker room the Bearcats are ready to make a statement and continue their climb from #8 in the polls.

Luke Fickell’s club is anything but fickle as they do 3 things very, very well…..control the clock , play defense and limit their mistakes.

Offensively the Bearcats rely on seasoned junior QB Desmond Ridder to protect the ball and convert on 3rd downs behind their rock solid OL.

Cincy is converting on 3rd down at a eye popping 54% clip which makes ball control easy and demoralizes defenses. It’s worth noting Tulsa converts on 3rd downs at a minuscule 22%. You decide.

The bookmakers are doing us a favor and making the Bearcats a cheap -3.5 favorite. Keep in mind Vegas doesn’t put up huge casinos because their stupid,  they know Joe Public will see the line and think Tulsa just beat UCF and run to the window with their grocery money.

Not us and our team of analysts at RSP , our model says lay the points and fill your pockets with some of their desert cash.

This should be a low scoring contest with the total at 46, we think it should sail quietly under that. We like the Cats by at least a touchdown.

-Lou Ricca, RSP Contributor

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