Pick Analysis: NFL Week 6

Jacksonville +3.5

The Model is all over the Jags as a home dog this weekend. We love backing dogs and especially home dogs. Here are some reasons why. #1 Detroit is 0-4 ATS as a favorite under Matt Patricia. #2 they are 1-12 SU the last 13 games. Putting it bluntly Detroit is not accustomed to covering. We don’t expect them to start now. #3 Jags are 3-2 as home dog since last season, they love playing at home and especially as a dog. Covering and winning outright as a 7 point home dog in week 1 vs Indy. So we have some trends on our side and we love getting the hook at 3.5.

We also love fading Detroit on the road on a natural grass surface. They got blasted by GB as 7 point dog in GB. They did manage to beat Arizona on the road as a 5 point dog but AZ played horrible that game and turned the ball over 3 times. Remember Detroit is 0-4 as a road favorite, we like that trend. We don’t expect Detroit to create turnovers as they only have 4 in 4 games this season and 3 of them were against AZ. Jax has 7 turnovers in 5 games but only 2 of them have come at home. So we expect the turnover battle to be even. If not slightly favor the Jags. Offensively the Model shows both teams to be even in the key statistics we look at. So we don’t see any distinct advantage on why Detroit should be laying 3.5 on the road. Both of these defenses give up a ton of points, so again we don’t see an distinct defensive advantage in our Model on why Detroit would be giving anyone points at this point in the young season. Grab the Fighting Minshews and the 3.5.

– Mike Forbis, RSP Contributor

Washington +3

We love Washington on the road at the NY Giants. One reason we love the Football Team is NYG is just 1-8 ATS in last 9 at Met Life Stadium. This bodes well for a Redskin team getting QB Kyle Allen back. NYG bettors will be rushing to the window to hammer the Gmen because they hung with the Cowboys last week. We will reap the benefits of this inflated line by snagging 3 on the road with Riverboat Ron. 

Washington has struggled lately but adding Allen should give this team a boost with a QB battling for a future job. Statistically the Wash offense has struggled all year, but the Giant D can make anyone look good. We actually give the edge to the Wash offense this week. They have played two tough defenses the last 2 weeks in Balt and LA Rams and we expect them to lick their chops on this passive Gmen Defense. The Gmen Have faced some pretty difficult competition putting them in great position for the Trevor Lawerence sweepstakes. We just don’t see them putting up points on this Washington defense. The offensive unit has only put up 20 points once, on the Cowboys. High school teams could put up 30 on the Cowboys.

Look for the Wash D to be stingy enough to hold this Giant offense back. We like them with the FG and wouldn’t be shocked to see them steal an outright W. 

-Mike Forbis, RSP Contributor

Tennessee -3.5

After the Titan’s beat down of the then undefeated and Public darling Buffalo Bills, Houston comes to town to get demoralized by Henry and Company.

Running QB’s don’t present a real problem to Tennessee as they dismantled rambling Josh Allen with ease.  We see Deshawn Watson running for his life as well, and the trade super-bust David Johnson looking washed up and ready for the RB glue factory.

Houston has been anemic against the run and we can only imagine what stiff-arming thoroughbred Derrick Henry will do to the Texans. Henry is already looking like he usually does at the end of the season steamrolling through opposing defenses like Jimmy Brown.

Smartie Mike Vrabel certainly gets our edge over ancient DC Romeo Crennel. Rommie  is incapable of handling both sides of the ball as he proved with my beloved Cleveland Browns. His head just may spin off his neck with what the Titans are going to throw at him.

Both teams are horrible ATS but we like the home team against the rutterless Texans who still can’t believe how O’Brien ruined this once playoff team. The Texans have lost both road games by at least 7 points.

I’m told secretly Ryan Tannehill is still pissed that he was drafted after RG3 and then abruptly discarded by Miami. He told me after draining a 30 footer at The Govenor’s Golf Club that he has a gigantic chip on his shoulder and can’t wait to shove it up everybody’s keister.

RSP loves this game as we see the Texans getting a big dose of #22 in a 34-20 romp fest by the Titans.  All of our metrics are pointing to Tennessee, so join RSP and line your pockets with some of your bookies cash.

-Lou Ricca, RSP Contributor  

San Francisco +3.5

At first glance we know what you’re thinking, how in the hell are you betting on a team that has lost two straight at home and just got destroyed by a 1-3 Dolphins team. While that is a valid concern, RSP actually loves the Niners to bounce back this week against the Rams.

Yes the Niners have issues. But they may not be as bad as they were made to be last week. Against the Dolphins, it seemed the Niners got away from what makes them a good team. The Niners are at their best when they commit to run first offense and playing stingy defense. They failed to do this against the Eagles when Jimmy G and Mostert were out and again last week when those two returned from injury. On defense the Niners struggle with mobile QBs that negate their pass rush and if you look at their 3 losses this year all 3 QBs can make plays with their legs. In their 2 wins, they feasted on immobile QBs. Now I’m not saying Jared Goff is a stiff, but when you’ve only rushed for less than 30 yards on the season you’re damn close. When the Niners defense can pin their ears back and not worry about a QB escaping the pocket, they are at their best.

That brings us to the Rams. They are 4-1 and seem to be playing well. But looking closer at their schedule they may not be as strong a team as their record indicates due to their light schedule. All 4 wins have come against the NFC Least. In their one game outside the NFC East, they had to come back from a 28-3 deficit in Buffalo. The 2 games since they have played the 0-5 Giants and a 1 win Washington team that is trying to figure out their QB situation. They have also struggled to find a ground game on offense averaging just 3.1ypc the last 2 weeks. Too go along with no ground game the Rams are also struggling on 3rd down where they have converted just 11/28 the last 2 weeks. They will have a much tougher time this week vs the much more talented rival Niners.

So what we see here is a divisional matchup, with a 1 dimensional offensive team that may be a little overrated in the Rams vs a Niners team coming off an embarrassing loss looking to bounce back and right the ship. Based on our model we see this being no more than a 3pt game in either direction with the possibility of the Niners getting the outright win. With the dog covering in their last two meetings, we will take the Niners as home dog with the 3 plus the hook.

-Jackson Morgan, RSP Contributor

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