Pick Analysis: NFL Week 7

Green Bay Packers -3.5

Is there anybody that really wants to bet against Rodgers after getting embarrassed by the pretty boy in Tampa? Not us, we say lay the points with the pissed off Rodgers and his green and gold red ass. By the way, Rodgers is 30-15 ATS after a loss.

Green Bay has easily covered four in a row before the Brady ambush. Compared that to the stellar O’Brien/Romeo record of 1-5 ATS, with their lone win against that hapless 2-4 ATS Jacksonville comedy show.

The sharpies in Vegas agree with us  too as this game started at -3 and has nudged it way pass the key number to -3.5. Isn’t that awful peculiar.

Road teams historically cover the number at a 63% clip with this type of line movement. Furthermore, teams after a blowout cover 54% of the time ….and we have Rodgers?

We are running to the window.

Green Bay was averaging 30 points a game before last week, if we throw out the Jacksonville, Houston had been giving up 33 a contest.

Let that sink in, and don’t forget you have #12 taking snaps.

We realize the Packers have been hit with some injuries but we don’t think that will matter in Houston. Rodgers could win with the a CYO football team this week.

Our metrics point to the Pack and we doubt you’ll see a any Hunk-O-Matic dance this week because Aaron will be all business.

Great QB’s are extremely focused after blowouts.

Don’t overthink this one, Back the Pack.

-Lou Ricca, RSP Contributor

Detroit Lions +2

We love backing the Lions +2 on the road in Atlanta. Detroit used a bye to get back on track covering last week with a 34-16 drubbing of the Jaguars. We like that trend to continue vs one of the worst defenses in the league.

Atlanta is horrible on defense. Atlanta has given up 38,40,30,30, 23, and 23 in their last 6 games en route to 1 win over a terrible Minnesota team. How are they giving points to anyone? Mostly because people think they have this explosive offense. They are talented on offense, but a 14.9 yard per point statistic means this “explosive” offense has to work real hard to score. In fact in this contest, The Model would say Detroit has the more explosive offense.

After a tough start to the season (Bears, Pack, Saints, Cards) the Lions took care of Jacksonville and have a chance to gain more steam with a win here in the ATL. Not only do we see Detroit covering the small number but the Model likes an outright victory. We give the Lions the advantage in offense, defense, and special teams. We also like Detroit in the turnover battle. Atlanta and Detroit average the same amount of Giveaways, but Detroit is T3rd in takeaways on the road.

Add that to some favorable trends (listed below) and you got a live dog in Detroit +2. Road dogs +6 or less on the road are 23-11 ATS (68%). Road teams when the line moves in their favor are 28-16 (64%). Detroit is 11-4 Last 15 on road ATS in October. ATL 0-3 ATS at home this season.

-Mike Forbis, RSP Contributor

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